How Much of the Herd Has Some Immunity?

Friday, February 26, 2021 | by Alex Hartzman

Tags: pandemic, PHE, Public Health Emergency, COVID-19, HerdImmunity

COVID-19 cases are currently on the decline in the U.S. and effective vaccines have been developed, approved and are being distributed at record pace – all cause for celebration. However, new variants and societal fatigue are continuing dangers to the health and well-being of Americans as the government and healthcare industry race to vaccinate and protect people from the novel pathogen. As we complete our first full year living in the COVID-19 public health emergency, this blog explores two questions worth asking:

  1. How far are we into this pandemic (in terms of herd immunity); and
  2. What are our policy options to take advantage of this recent decline in cases and steadily increasing availability of vaccines?

COVID-19 Modeling Update: May 15, 2020

Friday, May 15, 2020 | by Alex Hartzman, Al Dobson, Joan DaVanzo

Tags: COVID-19

Federal guidance has shifted to reopening and states are just beginning to lift restrictions. With no vaccine in the foreseeable future and testing still inadequate (both for active disease and presence of antibodies), many models indicate that the U.S. is poised for major resurgences in infections in the coming months.

COVID-19 Modeling Update: Dobson | DaVanzo Modeling Corner

Friday, April 24, 2020 | by Alex Hartzman

Tags: Hospitals, modelling, COVID-19, Hospital Finance

Alex Hartzman dicusses the changing nature of the COVID-19 forecast models. What does it all mean?

Dobson | DaVanzo Provides Analytical Support for COVID-19 Planning and Response Activities

Tuesday, April 14, 2020 | by Alex Hartzman

Tags: COVID-19

Dobson | DaVanzo works with clients to find the best possible data in their state, examine the differential spread of COVID-19 by county, and include information about health system capacity to build an actionable model that helps planning and response activities. We are also working to extend our modeling to post-acute care and other services as it relates to the risk of providers, their patients and the recovery of those infected by COVID-19. Send us an email at if you would like to discuss how we can assist in the modeling for your medical demand or surge planning over the immediate or longer-term future.